← Grand Archive TCG - Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-6-1
overall winrate
18.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
43.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1156
· median 1156
· range 1133–1179
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1085
Q1 1170
Q3 1228
1289
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -3.0 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
